LOCKEZ'S PROFILE

author=TremendousMilk3
Until I do something? What do you propose I do?

Post opinions about people? Describe whether you think they're scum, and why? You know. Play mafia?

Well first we should all probably keep bringing it up until you do something.

But also I thought it was obvious that I was bringing it up because I was asking Fomar why he was convinced you weren't scum.

author=psy_wombats

author=OzzyTheOne
Why do you want me dead again?

Half because I'd find it funny, but also because cave stated what is also my town/scum tell on you (analytical vs maniacal), and now you'll probably be too sensitive to it for me to get an actual proper read.

So this bothers me because even if Ozzy probably would have been too sensitive to it after that to get a proper read, this post by Psy pointing it out makes him definitely too sensitive. Why say that out loud? It could just be sloppy. Or it could be Psy caring more about making himself look analytical than about actually being analytical.

author=psy_wombats
Hey Ozzy if you go down and you're town, who should we murder in revenge?

This question makes no sense in the context of this game. Ozzy clearly knew nothing about his enemies. There's no useful information to get out of it, either about Ozzy or about anyone else. The only point of asking it is for Psy to look like he's asking questions, and to try to get people to talk about a red herring.

author=psy_wombats
Okay nevermind I read the thread anyway - Ozzy what does your item/power/etc do? and what's it called? And what are the agent codenames?

Don't have much to add other than that AE and PA look bad. Whoever was asking why AE was on my original hitlist was I usually can follow her reasoning but couldn't for the first part of the day. Still on it for trying to start a train away from Ozzy.

Ozzy had already said it was a bodyguard item. This was actually the second post in which Psy asked for more details about it. It feels like trying to steer the discussion away from the useful part of the role claim, toward something that doesn't matter. Or maybe toward info that could help scum know how to circumvent the bodyguard power.

Also, I already stated my theory that the reason Psy asked for the other code names might have been because he suspected the code names were the same in both chats. If one of the agent code names matched one of the scum code names, then he could identify the double agent. This is info that directly and massively benefits scum.

At this point AlaskanEmily is on his hit list for "trying to start a train away from Ozzy" but that's what any sensible person would do after Ozzy roleclaimed as an agent. C'mon.

author=psy_wombats
@demon: it helps us determine if his claim is legit. How are calling him a "basically confirmed agent," all he is is a claimed agent. Reasons I doubt it:
- claimed to be a bodyguard, was reminded the only role is "agent," decided he was actually a paper bag owner
- told people to not counterclaim for some reason whereas a legit agent would have agentchat to clear this play beforehand... But makes no mention of the input of the other agents
- i believe items are oneshot

How the flip were the code names supposed to help you determine if Ozzy's claim was legit, you snurdburglar? Nobody could confirm if the code names were real or not unless they were agents. Ozzy didn't have to give out any info publicly, he just had to say "I'm Ozzy" in the agent chat.

Somehow Psy then remembers that the agent chat exists with respect to telling the other agents not to counterclaim, despite having forgotten it four sentences earlier with respect to telling the other agents his identity. This strikes me less as thought-out logic, and more as opportunistic trigger-happy finger-pointing at any perceived flaw. The fact that Psy's two points contradict each other isn't important to him; what matters is making as many points as possible. It's the kind of thing you'd do if you're more interested in pointing out any flaw than in figuring out what those flaws might mean. Psy is usually better than this.

author=psy_wombats
For the record, the tuba randomly reveals the ID of a player with 90% accuracy, then gets passed to someone randomly.

I still think this is unlikely as fuck, for all the reasons I ranted about at length before.

author=psy_wombats

author=oddRABBIT
For one, if Jeroen is telling the truth in this instance, he basically just immediately claimed that he is in fact independent and can pretty much win as long as he doesn't die. Two, we don't know if PA is lying or not about the color scheming, and heck, we don't even know if any of the power roles in this game are based on color like (I think?) they were in the last one. They could be absolutely and completely different, like being named after famous terrorists/spies in real life, or like characters from spy movies or something.

Between this and the ""what are the chances I'm mafia twice in a row??"" I think this is Odd being flippant scum again. if he's agent, then, welp

One of two things happened here, either psy legitimately forgot that agents would also know how the code names worked, or he decided to deliberately out someone who had a 50/50 chance of being either scum or an agent and accuse them of being scum. Nobody is dumb enough to do the first thing, and nobody is dumb enough to do the second thing unless their win condition is oddRABBIT's death. This might be the thing that bothers me the most.

author=psy_wombats
I used "gray agent" in direct response to demon, who used it in the post before mine

author=psy_wombats
I assume demon used the term because he was explicitly warned about in his role pm as scum.

I'm not claiming my logic for bringing this whole thing up in the first place wasn't dumb, because it was. But I feel like it was honestly too dumb for other people to latch onto. I didn't really even explain it properly and so Psy apparently came up with his own unrelated reason for thinking it was suspicious, which was that he thought it was an official name for the role that Demonlord was told by Pianotm. But I think there's also a big chance that he just saw me say something dumb, and latched onto it so he could steer the conversation in an irrelevant direction without being the one who was blamed for it. Standard scum misdirection tactic.

-----

All of this minor stuff combines to form a scenario where, to me, Psy feels like he is trying to steer people down as many wrong discussion paths as possible. And also hunting for actual info that helps scum, in three different situations (bodyguard mechanics / code names / odd's role).

For future reference, I promise demonlord is always telling the truth about not understanding the rules in mafia games. That's like his primary M.O.

OK, let's actually look at this.

author=Fomar0153
I was going through day 1 again and thought I'd summarise the votes on demonlord.

The voting on demonlord went like this:
+PA
-PA
+PSY
-PSY
+Jeroen
Then the train on Ozzy gets close to hammer and Ozzy reveals he is an agent.
Psy's trombone.
Bear in mind at this point that besides Ozzy, demonlord has had the most votes against him at various times and at some point he was very likely to reveal himself in scumchat and ask for help or bussing.
+Cap_H
-Cap_H
+CAVE_DOG
+PA
+Jeroen
+Lockez
+Ozzy
+AE
+Fomar

At hammer the only other votes were:
PlatinumAshes(2): Cap_H, demonlord5000 (canceled shortly before he died)

So my question is, when do you think demonlord would have revealed himself in scum chat? After the Ozzy claim? After three votes? Five?

I can only say what I would do, which is wait until probably about two votes away from being hammered. But because the scum would have been blind before he revealed himself, anyone who voted before he claimed can easily be scum. And because there was already an unstoppable bandwagon on him, and scum like to make themselves look good by bussing each other in that situation, anyone who voted after he claimed can also easily be scum. The only people who are actually suspicious to me based on the voting pattern are oddRABBIT, Fomar, and TremendousMilk who didn't vote for Demonlord at all, and to a much larger extent, Cap_H who cancelled his vote.

Cap_H's vote cancellation was weird too.

author=Cap_H
Good,

Actually while taking a shower a fallacy in my logic occurred to me. Demon's only possibly scum if Ozzy's town. Ozzy claimed, but he's far from confirmed.
Fomar flipping town makes PA an obvious choice for now, then.

There wasn't really any reason to think that Ozzy had lied about his role claim. Even if there was a chance he had lied, the case against PA was certainly weaker than Ozzy's claim. Also I'm not really sure why Ozzy's status would be linked to Demonlord's status in the first place. We were lynching Demonlord because he was making up bullshit reasons for doing things, not because Ozzy had some insight from his role. This supposed fridge logic makes no sense to me, and might simply be an excuse to cancel his vote on Demonlord after Demonlord revealed himself in scum chat.

Cap, can you explain what you were thinking here in this post in more detail?